Author JTAdams

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  • Recently I’ve been hoping to measure the risk I am taking by investing in the TSX. There are a few ways to do that. The most useful illustration I created is below:

    The way I created that was to find the percent change of each period (ie the percent change after 1 day, 2 days 3 days, etc.) for the TSX from 1980 until now. Then calculated the first quartile, mean, and 3rd quartile for each period of changes. Since I have already shown the daily percent changes fall into a binomial distribution centered near 0, I should expect fairly high risk to invest for just one day, which you can see on the above trend. The reason the Y-axis scale is so large is because I compensated the interest rate for the time period. For example if your account gained 1% every 5 days, you would have a 73% annual return. To produce the above chart I used only data after the year 2000 as I felt it would be more relative.

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