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Alot has changed on the Alberta power market since the addition of a province wide carbon tax. Namely alot of power generation has increased their bids in order to compensate. I re-created an average Alberta Merit Order for the time period between Jan 1, and Mar 1 2017. It looks really accurate. At the time of writing the AIL (Alberta Internal Load) was 8774MW, and the price was $28.11/MWh. The details of how the graph is generated are very long, and I will go into that on another post. As you can see by this, the power price will be spiking up with increased loads unlike that last few years. See below:

As you can see, it is more likely that we will see the price spike up to $1000/MWh in 2017 if the provincial load hits over 11500MW, and/or if there are units offline.

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Went through some stocks on the TSX, and took the percent changes over different time periods over many years, and found the standard deviation of those changes. These are useful for calculating options prices, as those depend upon the likelihood of the stock price reaching the strike price of the option.

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If you are wondering how the currencies are doing today, the USD is gaining value. Which as many people have heard will create issues for people with USD denominated debt who earn in other currencies.

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This is a link to a web site where you can pull up historical (last 5 years) inlet flow and fuel gas flow for gas plants in Alberta. The search box has auto complete like google, once you type three letters, it will fill out the rest. Click the plant you want from the auto complete list, and hit search.

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Decided to take a look at AER’s ST13 to compare gas plants/fields/companies in Alberta. It shows the inlet, products, fuel, flaring, and metering differences for each plant in the province, as well as location. Here is an image of all the gas plants in the south/central region of Alberta. The size represents the raw inlet gas, and the color represents the field.

Legend Here
Then I thought I would see which Licensees had the best metering balances from 2009-2016, anything over 5% is an issue, depending on the inlet volume (could be even less than 5%). The monthly average of the positive errors (took in more than sold) is 3.36% for all gas plants from 2009-2016. The monthly average of negative errors (sold more than took in) is -2.42%.

Here are the worst.

Here is a comparison of several different licensees to compare the amount of fuel consumption to inlet flow.

The average fuel consumption across every plant in the province is 5.8% of raw inlet flow.

Here is an amazing tale of some up and coming companies, who have massively increased their C5+ production, surpassing some of the old large fields.

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